The Right Timing? Luck And Judgement Shapes Success
Estimated reading time: 6 Min
The right timing is essential, right? Here we explore preparing for the luck that appears at the right time!
Timing is everything.
Imagine launching a product that’s revolutionary, but no one gets it, or worse, no one needs it.
That’s Frustrating with a capital F, right?
The truth is, having a great idea isn’t always enough.
Sometimes, it’s about making sure that idea arrives at exactly the right moment.
Take, for instance, products that were too early for their audience—like early VR headsets in the 90s.
Then think of those that got it just right, such as the iPhone, which arrived when the world was ready for it.
The question is, what makes the timing right?
Is it just dumb luck, or does careful judgement have a role to play?
Here we explore whether success is down to pure chance, careful planning, or maybe a bit of both.
The Role of Timing in Success
Timing can be the silent hero of any success story.
Think of those ideas that were ahead of their time.
Remember the Apple Newton (available from 1993 to 1998)?
It was a brilliant concept—essentially an early version of the smartphone and small tablet—but the market simply wasn’t ready for it.
The idea was solid, but the timing was off.
Contrast this with something like Airbnb, which came along at the exact moment people were looking for cheaper, more unique travel experiences.
The timing was perfect, and success followed.
Good timing is often the difference between an idea being a flop or a massive hit.
It’s not always visible, but it’s a crucial factor in how an idea is received by the world.
Luck vs Judgement: Defining the Concepts
Is it luck or good judgement that leads to success? Let’s start by defining these.
Luck is about randomness—things beyond your control that just happen to go your way.
It’s that unpredictable stroke of fortune when everything clicks.
Judgement, on the other hand, involves skill.
It’s the ability to analyse situations, conduct market research, understand emerging trends, and make predictions.
It’s knowing when to hold back and when to push forward.
Luck is like winning the lottery.
Judgement is knowing which lottery to enter in the first place—and why.
The Ingredients of Good Timing
So, what goes into getting the timing right?
- Market Awareness
You have to know if the market is ready for your idea. Does your audience even understand the problem you’re solving? Are they looking for a solution, or will your product just confuse them? - Observation of Trends
Trends often start as ripples before they become waves. Spotting those initial ripples and acting accordingly is a huge part of getting the timing right. Think about the rise of remote work technology before the pandemic hit—those companies were positioned perfectly because they saw the trend before it exploded. - Adaptability
Sometimes your timing is off, and that’s okay. Adaptability is what lets you shift gears, tweak your idea, and try again when the market is ready. Think of Instagram starting out as a check-in app before pivoting to focus on photo sharing.
Case Studies: Luck, Judgement, or Both?
Let’s look at some real-life examples to see how timing, luck, and judgement work together.
- Netflix
Initially, Netflix’s idea of online streaming was ahead of its time. The technology wasn’t quite there, and people were still used to DVDs. But Reed Hastings and the team had the judgement to pivot and wait for the technology to catch up. They prepared by developing, bided their time, and when broadband became fast and widespread, Netflix was ready to dominate. - YouTube
Was YouTube’s growth down to luck or judgement? Arguably, it was both. YouTube launched when digital video was just becoming accessible to everyday people. Their good judgement saw the potential for user-generated content, but they were also lucky that technology and cultural shifts aligned at just the right time.
In both cases, good judgement set the stage for luck to play a role.
Can You Influence Luck?
Can you do anything to improve your chances of getting lucky?
Yes, to an extent. It’s called “preparing to be lucky.”
Think of it like getting a lottery ticket—if you never buy one, your chances of winning are zero.
In business, preparing to be lucky means doing your homework, being in the right circles, and staying aware of opportunities, and developing in preparation.
It’s about creating conditions where good fortune is more likely to occur.
Imagine a guitarist who practices every day, goes to jam sessions, and puts their work online.
They might be in the “right place at the right time” when a famous musician sees their work.
Was it luck?
Absolutely.
But that guitarist was ready to take advantage of that luck.
Practical Tips: Improving Your Judgement for Better Timing
Here are some practical ways to hone your judgement, so that when an opportunity arises, you’re ready:
- Stay Informed
Read about your industry, keep an eye on what’s changing, and notice where the world is headed. Trends don’t appear out of nowhere; they often leave clues. - Listen to Your Audience
Engage with the community you want to serve. Their needs and pain points are your best indicators of where the opportunities lie. If they’re not ready, wait. Timing is everything. - Be Patient
Not every idea is ready to take off immediately. Sometimes the best strategy is to hold back, refine your idea, and launch when the world is ready to listen.
The Interplay of Luck and Judgement
Luck and judgement aren’t mutually exclusive.
In fact, they often work hand-in-hand.
Sound judgement creates opportunities where luck can flourish.
The key is to make decisions that place you in situations where luck has a chance of occurring.
FAQs
Can you create luck through good judgement?
To some extent, yes. Good judgement means being prepared, which often makes it easier to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.
What are some signs that an idea is ahead of its time?
If the audience doesn’t understand the product or the market infrastructure isn’t ready, it’s likely ahead of its time.
How can I tell if it’s the right time to launch an idea?
Look for evidence of demand, readiness in your target market, and compatibility with current trends.
What should I do if I think my idea is ahead of its time?
Consider adapting the idea to better fit current needs, or focus on educating your audience until they are ready.
Is success always about good timing?
Not always, but timing often plays a critical role. Even the best ideas need the right environment to flourish.
Summary: The Right Timing
So, is getting the timing right about luck or judgement?
It’s both.
Luck is unpredictable, and you can’t rely on it.
But good judgement—the ability to read the room, spot trends, and make informed decisions—puts you in a position where you can take full advantage of any stroke of luck that comes your way.
Have you ever had an idea that didn’t take off, only to see something similar succeed later?
Was it a matter of luck or judgement?
Share your thoughts on how luck or judgement affected your timing.
I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
😉
Richard
